I’ve spent a career working with people who would describe their own life experiences as just impossible, and they believe that nothing that I could do or say could help them shift their mindset – their depression, or anxiety or stress.
Often when I’m sitting with these clients they work really hard to convince me how much of an hopeless case they are.
I’ve worked with clients who would even give me a little nod and a smile and they’d say to me something like “Look, I can see you’re a nice guy, your well meaning and everything, but, you know, you just don’t understand how messed up I am.”
So, for these clients, I have been known to introduce a version of Pascal’s Wager, which a psychologist mentor, Kelly Wilson, showed me. He called it Wilson’s Wager, and it is based on the work of the seventeenth-century French philosopher, theologian, mathematician, and physicist, Blaise Pascal.
Pascal was a troubled Christian and he used this model to work out his theology just the way you would expect from a logician. Here’s Pascal’s Wager…
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There Is A God |
There Is No God |
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I Believe In God |
#4 – Heaven |
#1 – You’re wrong, but it doesn’t matter |
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I Don’t Believe In God |
#3 – Hell |
#2 – You’re right, but it doesn’t matter |
So Pascal divided the state of the universe into two columns. “There Is A God” and the other column is “There Is No God”. So you don’t get to choose on on that one – it’s the state of the universe – it’s one or the other.
And then you’ve got two rows. This is your choice. So you can live your life like “I Believe In God,” or you could live your life like “I Don’t Believe In God”. And you get this nice two by two table (see above).
Here’s how Pascal imagined the outcomes.
#1 – If you live your life like “I Believe In God,” and then it turns out that “There Is No God”,
then at the end of all things, it turns out you were wrong, but you don’t feel too bad about being wrong, because now you’re dead. So no God, no afterlife, but no you feeling bad about how wrong you were going to church all those Sundays when you could have been surfing, fishing or something like that.
#2 – Now, if you assume that “There Is No God”, and you live like “I Don’t Believe In God”
it turns out that you’re right, then after you die, you find out that you were right and those bible thumpers were wrong about everything. Except, now, whoops, there’s no God, no afterlife, and you don’t get to gloat about our right you were about how wrong they were.
So if the state of the universe is “There Is No God” then there is not much going on whatever you believe.
#3 – Now, if you live your life like “I Don’t Believe In God”, and it turns out, you were wrong about that and there really is a god, that’s the bad quadrant, you don’t want to end up in that one.
#4 – But say that you assume that there is a God. And it turns out that you’re right, there really is a God, then your heaven bound.
And that is Pascal’s Wager.
So Kelly Wilson showed me his version of this wager. It is for client’s who think of themselves as hopeless, or even for psychologists who are afraid that the client might be able to help a client.
Here’s Wilson’s Wager…
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Client: I CAN Live A Rich And Extraordinary Life |
Client:I CAN NOT Live A Rich And Extraordinary Life |
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Psychologist: I Believe The Client Can Succeed |
#4 – Client lives rich and extraordinary life |
#1 – I’m wrong. I work hard but the clients life still sucks. I feel bad. |
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Psychologist:I Don’t Believe The Client Can Succeed |
#3 – I sold the client short. |
#2 – I’m right. I get to feel good about how right I was about the client being hopeless. |
So for clients the state of the universe is “I CAN Live A Rich And Extraordinary Life” or I CAN NOT Live A Rich And Extraordinary Life” and I, as the psychologist, don’t really know which one in true.
And then down the left hand side is my belief, as their psychologist, about my client – It is either “I Believe They Can Succeed” or “I Don’t Believe They Can Succeed”
#1 – So if I assume that my clients can succeed, and then it turns out that I was wrong. That state of the universe is that my client never could never would. Then there’s a real loss. I work hard and I lose someone. That sometimes happens.
#2 – Now if I assumed that my client couldn’t succeed, and I acted as if, my client was not capable of anything rich and meaningful. And it turns out that I was right. Then I get to feel good about how right I was about how hopeless my client was. And that’s what I win – which is a pretty shallow victory for a helping professional.
#3 – If I assume that my client can’t succeed, and I was wrong about that then I sell that client short.
Now sometimes when I’m mentoring other psychologists they start to get concerned that I talk about living a rich and meaningful life with clients who have gone through absolutely horrendous stuff. These psychologists will say to me something like “Aren’t you worried that you’re setting your clients up for disappointment and demoralisation when your start talking to them about valued living?”
And of course I think about Wilsons Wager and I say “Hey don’t you worry about setting up your clients for less of a life than they could have?”
#4 – If I assume the client can live a rich and meaningful life, and it turns out that I’m right, then my client gets a chance to experience extraordinary richness. And I do too.
And I see it happen all the time. Often the most unlikely outcomes become reality. And I think that to be true for every client. I’ve seen it happen too often to ever quit on a client.
And it’s important for you to check in on your assumptions about yourself and your ability to live a rich and meaningful life. It’s also important to consider the assumptions of those around you.
So in this table there are two kinds of errors I can make as a psychologist.
Quadrant #1 – It’s a false positive. I try my hardest and my client doesn’t succeed. Or Quadrant #3 – It’s a false negative. I don’t try and my client doesn’t succeed. I don’t get to choose whether I’ll make mistakes or not, I just get to choose what kind of mistake I’m going to make.
And for my money, I’m going to choose that false positive mistake, every single time. I’m going to keep betting on my client until there’s no breath left in the person in front of me.
Sometimes, clients will try to convince me otherwise. And I’ve had occasions where I’ve told them, ”You can fire me, but you you are not going to get me a quick betting on you. I’m just not going to do it.”
And, slowly but sure these people bet start to bet on me, and I’m very grateful for that, and I take that as my job.
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